The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recently released its crime report for July 2024, offering a comprehensive look at crime trends in England and Wales, including theft, robbery, and criminal damage. Despite a decade-long decline in victim-based crime, the latest figures for the year ending March 2024 reveal some significant changes in specific crime categories.
Over the past ten years, victim-based crime has generally fallen, although some types of crime, like sexual assault, have shown increases. According to the Crime Survey for England and Wales (CSEW) for the year ending March 2024, there were approximately 8.8 million incidents of headline crime, encompassing theft, robbery, criminal damage, fraud, computer misuse, and violence. This marks a notable 22% decrease from the figures reported for the year ending March 2017, highlighting a significant long-term decline.
Theft: Mixed Trends
Theft remains a common crime, though its overall frequency has dropped considerably since the mid-1990s. For the year ending March 2024, theft incidents were around 2.7 million, showing little change from the previous year but representing a dramatic 77% decrease from the peak of 11.6 million incidents recorded in December 1995.
Within the category of theft, however, some sub-categories have seen notable shifts. Theft from the person rose by 40% to 347,000 incidents in the year ending March 2024, up from 247,000 the year before. Although this rise is significant, it is not markedly different from the levels seen before the pandemic in March 2020.
Shoplifting has also surged, reaching its highest level in two decades. Police recorded 443,995 shoplifting offences, a 30% increase from the previous year. This trend is further supported by the Commercial Victimisation Survey 2023, which reported that 26% of retail and wholesale premises faced customer theft, up from previous years.
Conversely, other types of theft have seen a decline. Vehicle-related thefts dropped by 6%, with 380,100 offences recorded in the year ending March 2024, down from 405,744 the previous year. This decrease is largely attributed to a 12% reduction in thefts from vehicles.
Robbery: A Persistent Challenge
Robbery has also seen an increase, with police recording 81,019 offences in the year ending March 2024, an 8% rise from the previous year. Despite this increase, the number of robberies remains 10% lower than in March 2020 and is substantially lower than the 110,271 offences recorded in March 2003. Due to the variability in survey data, police data on robbery is generally considered more reliable than CSEW estimates.
Criminal Damage: A Declining Trend
Criminal damage, which includes vandalism and arson, shows a continuing decline. The CSEW estimated 664,000 incidents for the year ending March 2024, which is consistent with the previous year’s figures. Police data also indicates a 6% decrease in recorded incidents, totalling 473,131 offences. This ongoing decline reflects a long-term trend, attributed to factors such as enhanced security measures, increased public awareness, and possibly a shift toward less visible crimes like cybercrime.
While the overall crime data suggests a general decline in victim-based crime, several emerging trends require attention. The significant increases in specific types of theft, particularly shoplifting and theft from the person, pose new challenges for retailers and law enforcement. The rise in shoplifting and theft from the person suggests potential economic pressures or shifts in criminal behaviour, highlighting the need for targeted interventions.
The increase in robbery offences, though still below pre-pandemic levels, signals a persistent challenge. The violent nature of robbery makes this trend particularly concerning and underscores the importance of continued efforts in policing and community safety.
Although criminal damage continues to decline, it still represents a considerable portion of victim-based crime. The stable CSEW figures combined with the decrease in police-recorded offences indicate that while progress has been made, further reductions are possible through community engagement and preventative strategies.
Addressing these emerging trends will be crucial for developing effective crime reduction strategies moving forward. By focusing on both prevention and enforcement, it is possible to continue making progress in reducing overall crime while tackling the growing issues in certain crime categories.